FINANCIAL SUPPORT AND FORECASTING OF FOOD PRODUCTION USING ECONOMIC DESCRIPTION MODELING METHODS

Abstract. The article considers the financial programs used by state to support food production based on use of methods economic descriptive modeling. It is established that interpretation essence and strategy financing in practice has quite different approaches. been proven formation an effective system involves relationship redistribution between sources resources. substantiated agriculture all prerequisites for productivity growth provided investment Ukrainian agricultural sector increases budget financing. In this regard, features modeling capabilities using software package Statgraphics XVII Centurion. Because analysis, it main parametric criterion, which depends level country as a whole individual regions, determines indicator production, quantitative parameters are taken basis calculating self-sufficiency, import coverage, calories, consumption, profitability others. Estimation means allowed make forecast dynamics change its volumes next twelve time periods purpose preliminary definition production. For purpose, mathematical tools estimation future used. Modeling per person year was carried out research normality distribution Kolmogorov —Smirnov, Anderson — Darling compliance tests modified Smirnov test. According results comparative analysis seventeen models five tests, found most statistical quadratic model, projected calculated each (period) with reliability 95% lower upper limits studied indicator. 2030 Ukraine high probability trend will continue, at rate. outlines benefits study particular problem. Keywords: programs, support, forecasting methods, modeling, national economy. JEL Classification B41, C33, C53, G32, E62 Formulas: 0; fig.: 6; tabl.: 4; bibl.: 42.